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The Problems with Computer Models
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This video clip from the documentary video ”The Great Global Warming Swindle” explains why climate forecasts created by computer models are extremely unreliable. Climate scientists are interviewed who explain that climate models are only as good as the assumptions that go into them, and if any one factor is incorrect, the entire result of the model can be wildly inaccurate.

Dr. Roy Spencer, a senior scientist for climate studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center: ”Climate models are only as good as the assumptions that go into them. And they have hundreds of assumption. All it takes is one assumption to be wrong for the forecast to be way off.”

Narrator: ”All models assume that man-made CO2 is the main cause of climate change, rather than the sun or the clouds.”

Dr. Tim Ball, Former Professor, University of Winnipeg: ”The Analogy I use is: ‘My car is not running very well, so I’m going to ignore the engine which is the sun, and I’m going to ignore the transmission which is the water vapor, and I am going to look at one nut on the right rear wheel which is the human produced CO2.’ The science is that bad.”

Professor Ian Clark, University of Ottowa: ”You haven’t understood all of the components— the cosmic rays, the solar, the CO2, the water vapor, the clouds— and put it all together, if you haven’t got all that then your model isn’t worth anything.”

The range of the climate forecasts varies greatly depending on subtle alterations of the assumptions that the climate models are based on.

Professor Ian Clark: ”I work with models, I’ve done modeling, and in a mathematical model with tweaked parameters you can model anything— you can make it get warm, you can make it get colder by changing things.”

Narrator: ”To the untrained eye, computer models look impressive, and they often give wild speculation about the climate the appearance of rigorous science. They also provide an endless stream of spectacular stories for the media.

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